Our Economy
The economic impacts of such a large wind farm are many and diverse. On the one hand are the direct benefits from the supply, construction and operation of the wind farm. On the other are costs from disruption during construction, reductions in tourism and marine leisure revenues, reductions in the desirability of the region as a place to live and reductions in property values. A proper economic analysis must take account of all of these issues as businesses and livelihoods are at stake.
How does this affect NBDL's application?
The application is partly judged by whether it will help sustainable economic development in the local area. NBDL has provided a project-wide socio-economic assessment focussing on a Study Area close to the coast that would be most directly affected. However, NBDL's analysis has not quantified all the impacts on the economy.
What does NBDL say?
- The project will directly create jobs locally and nationally.
- Local suppliers will benefit.
- There will be no impact on the tourism sector.
Some local jobs would undoubtedly be created, and some local suppliers would benefit from the wind farm. There are still many unknowns, however, and there is a big variation in between the "low" and "high" scenarios presented by NBDL. NBDL’s central
estimate for the construction phase is for 224 new jobs in the area (and a
similar number elsewhere in the UK),
but it could be as few as 80 or as many as 2,000 in the local area. The high estimate would materialise only if concrete gravity bases were used for the turbines and they were manufactured at Portsmouth or Portland (neither of which were in the economic Study Area). By
definition, a very high proportion of such jobs would be temporary. NBDL’s central estimate for the operational phase is for 185 jobs, mostly in the area, but it could be as few as 17 or as
many as 237.
From a national perspective, most of these economic benefits would arise wherever this wind farm were built.
From a national perspective, most of these economic benefits would arise wherever this wind farm were built.
Spending by NBDL, its employees and contractors will bring revenue to local suppliers, although how much is very uncertain: the only certainty is that it will be a tiny fraction of the total project cost. What is spent locally will depend on the project configuration and on local suppliers’ own capabilities and competitiveness. At the same time,
there are serious risks to the local economy, although only a few segments
(Commercial Fisheries, Commercial Shipping and Tourism) have been analysed
directly. NBDL appears to anticipate the
loss of between 50 and 250 jobs in Commercial Fishing during the construction
phase, reducing to between 10 and 50 in
the operational phase, and a further 10 - 50 (applying throughout the construction and
operation phases) in Commercial Shipping.
Tourism
NBDL has stated that it “does not consider there would be any impact on the tourism sector as a result of the Project”. But there must be SOME impacts on tourism (there are direct impacts on scuba-diving during construction, for example). NBDL reaches its surprising conclusion despite the contrary evidence of its own Visitor and Tourism Business Surveys
The reliability and relevance of the limited, inconclusive evidence from other operating offshore wind farms is questionable. In any comparison with existing wind farms there are differences in the pre-construction state of the local economies, motivations of people to visit the areas, setting, heights, distances, horizontal spans of the wind farm, direction of lighting, timing of the surveys and so on. This makes comparisons unreliable, especially when trying to prove economic changes on the order of a few percent. Our region also has unique features; which raises doubt over the relevance of experience in other areas. For example, the Jurassic Coast’s natural, globally-recognised attractions are very different from the built attractions of the coastal resorts which are near to existing offshore windfarms.
- Visitor surveys indicated negative perceptions of the wind farm with significant visitor reductions (up to 32%) during the construction seasons and around 10% during operation
- The Tourism Business Survey focussing on the opinions of tourism businesses within 10 miles of the offshore component of the project or two miles of the onshore component, indicated that 51% of all respondents expected an adverse impact overall, and 40% expected an adverse impact on their individual businesses (on average, a reduction in turnover of 22%).
The reliability and relevance of the limited, inconclusive evidence from other operating offshore wind farms is questionable. In any comparison with existing wind farms there are differences in the pre-construction state of the local economies, motivations of people to visit the areas, setting, heights, distances, horizontal spans of the wind farm, direction of lighting, timing of the surveys and so on. This makes comparisons unreliable, especially when trying to prove economic changes on the order of a few percent. Our region also has unique features; which raises doubt over the relevance of experience in other areas. For example, the Jurassic Coast’s natural, globally-recognised attractions are very different from the built attractions of the coastal resorts which are near to existing offshore windfarms.